First Model That Identified Economic Foundation for Bitcoin and Widespread Model Adoption Could Expand the Bitcoin Market. Salomon Brothers is First to Apply the Model in its Research.
NEW YORK, NY / ACCESS Newswire / July 6, 2026 / Market adoption of bitcoin would increase significantly if there were a Bitcoin pricing model that can indicate fair value, with a statistically reasonable level of confidence. A new model by Phd Researchers, Daniels and Hileman, identified a statistically significant economic foundation for bitcoin that involves a link to USD money supply, specifically M2. If widely adopted, this model could be a basis for market consensus on price. A modified version of the Daniels & Hileman model was adopted by Salomon Brothers in its economic research. The Salomon version incorporates assumptions on a fundamental view on future monetary growth and uses a monte-carlo simulation to predict price in one year. Salomon Brothers modification factors in an increase in money supply to cover U.S. government spending on military and interest on U.S. debt in 2027 which should result in continued and steady appreciation for Bitcoin. The Salomon Research is available at https://salomonbros.com/research-1
The innovative new model is based on Bitcoin’s primary function as a store of value. The research found a statistical link between BTC and USD monetary dilution (measured as M2). It is an inverse relationship whereby Bitcoin gains value as money supply increases. The model shows high statistical relevance, with nearly a 90% fit, based on a backtest using nearly ten years of data. The model analysis found Bitcoin should be a better hedge against monetary dilution than is Gold and the superiority to Gold is more profound when adjusted for Bitcoin volatility.
The Daniels & Hileman model concept is that every dollar the Fed prints which is not absorbed by economic growth chips away at the dollar’s purchasing power. Bitcoin, with its fixed supply of 21 million coins and its origination as a anti-fiat dilution mechanism with holders who adhere to that point of view, best offsets the monetary dilution. The math, the model authors say, is similar to the logic behind gold – except Bitcoin’s supply cap is enforced by code, not geology. In fact, gold is an imperfect hedge to monetary dilution, in part, because it has many other uses in industry and cosmetics The Daniels-Hileman research is the first to show that Bitcoin’s value is primarily driven by an underlying economic function – monetary dilution.
Implications For Bitcoin’s Future
Until now, there has been no pricing model for Bitcoin with a solid foundation in economics. The lack of such a model has fueled volatility as people have widely dispersed assumptions as to Bitcoin’s utility and may expand its use case to act as a hedge to monetary dilution. Wide adoption of the Daniels-Hileman bitcoin valuation model could result in lower volatility and greater consensus as to expected prices. Improved predictability of bitcoin pricing can attract more buyers and lenders who will take bitcoin as collateral.
About the Researchers
The model was developed by Mr. Daniels and Mr. Hileman. The authors are recognized experts in economics and fintech. Daniels is a PhD candidate at Claremont Graduate University, previously earned masters degrees from Cornell and Harvard and is head of the fintech group at Salomon Brothers. Hileman earned a PhD from London School of Economics. The model is undergoing a private peer review by experts in economics, finance and fintech. The model will be released publicly when peer review is completed. Independent experts who wish to join the peer review should contact Salomon Brothers.
About Salomon Brothers
Salomon Brothers is an investment bank that serves corporations and institutions that seek advice on strategic transactions. The firm is proud that most staff and advisors are alumni of Salomon Brothers’ The firm is independent and is not affiliated with any bank. For more information see: salomonbros.com
Contact Information
SOURCE: Salomon Brothers
View the original press release on ACCESS Newswire